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Planning a Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment is Difficult!
| Risk Assessment in a project is the most difficult phase of all to
carry out. From the definition we gave elsewhere, a risk is a combination of uncertainty
and constraint. Constraints are usually difficult to remove, though they are important to
understand. For instance, a constraint that the project must be finished in time to
reflect a new piece of legislation is easy to understand. Manpower constraints are often
more uncertain, such as the availability of skilled staff at the critical phase of the
project. But, you say, you are just defining a constraint as an uncertainty.
Which just goes to prove how clear the thinking has to be if Risk Assessment is to
succeed. So let's try to be absolutely clear what we mean by uncertainty and constraint.
My old Concise Oxford defines Certainty as 'Undoubted fact, indubitable prospect, thing in
absolute possession, beyond possibility of doubt.' Since the essence of project management
is estimation, this tells us that just about everything in the project is uncertain. The
same book defined constraint as 'compulsion, confinement'. So in the process of Risk
Assessment we are going to attempt to select those areas of the project with the most
severe constraints and the highest uncertainty. |
Not least among the areas of uncertainty are the internal politics of the
project. Some people will want to look good to their bosses, or will want to have a quiet
life, or for some other reason may wish to conceal the weaknesses in their project plans.
It may be that a sub project manager will be able to move on before the delivery date of
his module, so it is in his interests to keep the thing going rather than suffer the
agonies of trying to get the project back on track. Or the project may have developed a
'completion culture', where all problems are ignored in order to deliver on time, even
though an impartial observer can see that the project is not going to meet its
requirements. |
The three circles indicate the most important quality
measurements of the project. And the most important of these is meeting the users'
requirements. How many projects do we know where the team has not bothered with
ensuring that the users understand what is proposed, but has got on with the interesting
part of the project - actually implementing it. |
Finding out and understanding the users requirements,
building the project schedules, and preparing the project financial plan, are all an
essential part of preparing for the project. These activities should all be carried out in
the first phase of the project - see Low Risk Project Management
for more information. If you have a detailed project plan, statement of user
requirements, and budget, then think of the three legged stool - if all three legs are not
the same length the stool will topple. These three documents are the three legs of your
project plan. So make absolutely certain that they are consistent.
After that, all that you have to do to complete your Risk Assessment is to explore each
task in the project plan and seek uncertainty. It is essential to be absolutely clear in
your thinking. For instance, 'The project will be late.' is not a Risk, it is an
Effect. You need to consider what the things are that could make each TASK in the Project
Plan late. |
 Project Risk Management Index
Robert Tusler
To discuss the contents of this article, or for advice or information about project
risk management, write to us by clicking here.
 Robert Tusler
is a member of the Alliance of Business Consultants
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This Page was created using WebEdit, 2 August
1996 and revised using Microsoft FrontPage 98,
Most recent revision 08 September 1998
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