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You are in the company of Roger Warren Evans - these are the eyes of Government Chief Scientist David King, the professor who is backing re-investment in nuclear energy - at present 27% of our energy is nuclear, but if we do not re-invest, that figure will drop to 7% by 2020, forcing us to burn more fossil fuels - I have always favoured the civil nuclear option, as offering the only real hope of building an equitable world order - what do you think?  Drop me a line

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Diary Note /0045
Saturday 27 April 2002
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Roll on May 3 

I am cringing my way through this Local Election campaign.  May 2 cannot come too soon for me (remember, we have no elections in Wales, this year...).  I am praying for no further embarrassments, no further illiberalities. 

Let me "un-pack" my thoughts on this subject. Labour is right to have chosen to fight on law & order - because that is the most important overall political issue touched by the quality of local government, by local police forces, by local estate management, by street and open space management.  That strategy also makes it difficult for the Tories to launch any effective counter-attack.  So it is a sound strategic decision. And I fully appreciate that, in that context, concerns about immigration must be addressed, particularly post Le Pen.

I was nevertheless appalled by David Blunkett's tone and language, also by his disingenuous Commons defence of his actions.  His reference to local schools being "swamped" by polyglot migrant children was unacceptable.  As a very experienced politician, his choice of the word "swamped" was clearly intended to give the electoral impression that he sympathised with the resentful majority, that he was really "on their side".  Coding is everything in these matters, know what I mean? nudge nudge wink wink...  

Given the sensitivity of language on this subject, it cannot possibly have been a mistake, a mere inadvertent disclosure of illiberality.  It must have been a deliberate election ploy, in an attempt to head off English xenophobia.  I understand the motive, and xenophobia must indeed be countered: but I reject his method.  Intolerant public language encourages private intolerance.  No politician should use intolerant language for short-term political gain. 

And Labour's absurd experiment with camp-based schooling for migrant children is doomed to be withdrawn once the full implications are appreciated.  It was just another example of playing to the immediate electoral gallery, using unacceptable means in seeking to achieve achieve legitimate ends.

What do you think?  Drop me a line   
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Managing Migration

The global management of migration (not merely "asylum-seekers") will be the biggest single political issue of the next ten years.   Why ten years?  Because if our societies, both within the European Union and further afield, have not found a widely acceptable political solution by then, they will all be riven by resentment, hatred, and persistent internal aggression.  

This is not, let me assure you, an Enoch Powell-like Armageddon prediction - because I know that a liberal, tolerant solution can be found.  It is to put down my own personal marker.  Because the construction of a solution, honouring human rights and acknowledging the sovereignty of every individual,  must be high on the socialist agenda.  The European Right will never be able to generate a solution.  And there is no effective European Liberal movement to hand.  Only the socialists have the political systems capable of delivering internatinally.  For the UK, the lonely responsibility falls to Labour.  And we must make an immediate start.

Do you share my priorities Drop me a line   
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  Congratulations to Tony Blair for introducing a new form of Question Time, giving the Select Committee Chairs the opportunity to cross-examine him on the conduct of his Government, and in particular the work of the powerful new Downing Street Performance and Innovation Unit - that is a real enhancement of the democratic role of the Commons.


Banking Conundrum

Which flag flies over the most comprehensive state-backed personal savings system in the Western world?  Which country deploys state coercion most widely to guarantee the financial stability of its retail-banking institutions?

It is the US of A!  That bastion of free enterprise, that Land of the Free, that Thatcherite Nirvana.  Both building-society deposits (Savings and Loans societies, in the US) and bank savings have massive statutory protection.  Both systems were introduced in 1931, to restore public confidence in the banking system following the Wall Street.crash.  And they have never been removed. The two systems are different, in that S&L savings are directly guaranteed by the Federal State, whereas for bank-savings there is a mandatory insurance levy, self-funding the insurance.  

The cover provided is very extensive indeed, effectively unlimited for ordinary citizens. And this week, the political spotlight turned on the banking guarantee system.  Congress is being advised to raise the $100,000-per-account limit, and to index it to inflation.  That would mean increasing the risk-burden borne by the State.  The figure is therefore already £70,000-per-account, as compared with £15,000-per-person under the UK's voluntary insurance system..  Hardly to be expected, is it, in the Valhalla of the Free Market?

The influential Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Chairman and America's top central banker,  does not want that state-protection to be extended.  He says -

  • "Raising the ceiling now would extend the safety net, increase the Government subsidy to banking, expand moral hazard and reduce the incentive for market discipline, without providing any real evident public benefits".

He argues that borrowers are given artificial protection against the risks of borrowing, thus weakening market forces. And he is supported by Bush's Treasury Under-Secretary Peter Fisher, who opposes the increase for the same reason.

But both top men underestimate the true significance of the 1931 state guarantees.  For 70 years, they have bolstered fragile consumer confidence, as they were intended to do.  They have underpinned the emergence of the strongest consumer economy that the world has ever known.  As a consequence, the US personal savings rate has always been the lowest in the Western world. The function of the State guarantees has been to give all consumers the confidence to go out and spend, saving only 5% of disposable income.  By contrast, the Japanese, whose national economy is on the floor, save 22% of disposable income.  

Which solution, Alan, is the better one?  I say that the US, having been forced to adopt the right "public" solution in 1931, laid the very foundations for the modern thriving consumer economy.  Americans have since then had the personal confidence to go out and spend, rather than hoard their money, secure in the knowledge that their savings are "safe".  No European Government gives its citizens the same support.  I believe that, in developing a new and radical socialist solution to the old-age pensions problem, Labour will be required to adopt the US guarantee-system for Additional Voluntary Contributions (AVCs).  Watch this space.

What do you think?  Drop me a line 
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  What a great job! If I were younger, I would apply for the job as Chief Executive of Birmingham City Council, advertised this week at £165,000 pa.  I am a total believer in cities and city systems, in their psychology and their philosophy, in their holistic governance, in their conception as living, breathing social systems - they ought to be the primary building blocks of our society, economically and politically - I shall be developing this theme in an address to the Cardiff Fabian Society, on 23 May 2002 - watch this space.


New "Systems Thinking"

I do enjoy the Daily Telegraph.  While The Guardian better reflects my "left liberal" values, the Telegraph under Charles Moore has good writers and a number of perceptive positions (particularly the Editor's personal liberty crusade, labelled A Free Country).  

An exceptional article by Rachel Sylvester about systems thinking pressed a lorra buttons for me [  Inside Politics 25 April ].  "Blair's advisers are worried, "she writes. "They are turning to systems theory - an idea already used by the US Navy and the Singapore Civil Service - which argues that a new way of thinking is needed, to deal with an increasingly complicated and interconnected world".

I agree with that.  And I have my own alternative system theory to offer you.  It is called Power Pack Theory.  It holds that the new political order should be constructed of only two elements, the one static, the other dynamic.  

The static elements are collectivist, the common support derived from membership of  "society", the universal benefits and entitlements, the rights of membership, commonly the preserve of socialist theory.  These remain the ground-rules of the game of life, broadly characterised by entitlement, and they remain the foundation of personal security for most people.

The dynamic elements are individualist, variable from person to person.  The "power pack" is an image derived from those early computer games, where the Hero carried a power pack on his back, which was depleted or replenished according to the success of his odyssey.  Those elements build up throughout life with education, examinations, family functions, inheritance, business and career success - or their contrary.  These are profoundly influenced by the static elements, but they reflect the way in which the game of life is played, by each of us. 

In Power Pack Theory, every political measure should be capable of categorisation as the one or the other, static or dynamic. Even the static may be expressed in flexible form.  The challenge to socialists is to recognise that the dynamic individualist elements are steadily increasing in importance, and that many earlier collectivist ideas need to be re-configured as individualist ones.  More about my Power Pack Theory, later.

What do you think?  Drop me a line 
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For those of you with a penchant for political theory, I publish today my paper Coming to Terms, which was originally published by the Institute for Public Policy Research, as a pamphlet, in March 1993. It's about the new deal, between Labour and the corporate sector, long before the present troubles..  Pre-Blair, pre-New Labour, pre-everything.  But not prehistoric - I find that I agree with almost everything I said then - give it a whirl, at Coming to Terms  

Good riddance

By increasing NI Contributions, Gordon Brown is being accused of accelerating the flight of private employers from pensions provision.  I would be delighted if that were to happen.  I have never been happy about a system which places reliance on the voluntary action of employers in choosing to organise company pensions schemes in the first place.  That is itself an abdication of public responsibility.  Only the State can ensure the long-term reliability of an old-age pension system.

My experience, both as an employer and an employee, is that corporate motives are too often flawed.  Employers use pensions schemes as golden handcuffs, discouraging staff mobility and demoralising trapped staff.  Departed employees have for years been ruthlessly exploited, their accrued pension entitlements open to every hazard of erosion. 

My hope is that the Government, my Labour Government, will finally re-assume the State's proper responsibility for countering the fears of ordinary people about impoverishment in old age.  Margaret Thatcher opted out, in 1981. Labour must pick up the challenge again, with new solutions.  The State Pension should be significantly upgraded, and supplementary pensions savings should be supported by State guarantees of the kind used in the United States.  The State, through Natinal Savings, must offer savers the guarantee of a minimum rate-of-return on savings, whatever the performance of the market. Only then will confidence in the pensions system be re-built, and public anxieties abated.  

Only a socialist solution will meet the bill.

Where do you stand?  Drop me a line  Top  


  Watch out, Alan Johnston!   As Blair's rumoured Liaison Minister for the Trade Unions, you will have to resist an increasingly shrill attack upon the Government's use of public-private partnerships.
The Unions are right to oppose certain major errors of political judgment, such as the Government's failure to renationalise Railtrack, the decision to privatise Air Traffic Control, and the threat of privatisation for the Royal Mail.  These are all bodies which should remain unambiguously in the public sector, staffed by public servants. It is a matter of public primacy. 
But the Unions are wrong to launch their current all-out campaign against all use of public-private partnerships.  My position?  I say that the agenda of Government is too full, and that we should offload onto the private sector everything we can, having made the correct political analysis in the first place. Even though you are a former Union leader (CWU) you must not let the Unions get the PFI baby thrown out with the bathwater...

Welcome, Brothers

How times change. One of my life-changing experiences as a construction-industry manager was to work as an Under-Secretary in the Department of the Environment (1974/77).  I was an Industrial Adviser, retained by the Civil Service itself, to help with research and policy formulation for the construction industry.  Even though I had the rank and salary of an Under-Secretary, I was prevented from joining the First Division Association, the top civil servants' union [ See  Special Advisers]  It was not their policy to admit "outsiders".

Imagine my surprise, therefore, to read this week that the FDA has welcomed Labour's 81 Special Advisers into union membership!  The move is immensely sensible, and I congratulate Jonathan Baume, FDA General Secretary, on his imaginative move. How times change... Top  


David Beckham  
Tax Entrepreneur

Tax avoidance is a powerful drive, for the very wealthy.  When the Beatles were young, their tax advisers dreamt up the great wheeze of creating a company (Apple Corps) to buy out the rights to their future songs yet to be written,  so that the Fab Four received a massive lump-sum, spectacularly avoiding Income Tax.

David Beckham is doing something similar  He is negotiating new contract terms with Manchester United.  But the new wheeze is to negotiate two contracts, not one.  There is the usual contract of employment, attracting Income Tax and National Insurance.  But in addition, there is a new kind of "image rights" contract, which grants Manchester United the right to use the David Beckham Image as part of its own promotional programme.  Under that contract, there is no payment of wages at all - the DB image rights company sells intellectual property rights to, and receives fees and royalties from, Manchester United Limited.  The shares of that company can be sold off by David Beckham to realise capital gains, thus avoiding Income Tax and National Insurance.

Clever, or what?   Income is converted, by Harry Potter wand, into capital (which is what the Beatles did), reducing tax liabilities in the process.  Tax-avoidance professionals are permanently engaged in trying to outwit the tax authorities, making liberal use of artificial personalities (new "companies") in the process.  In this case, it is reported that Manchester United would prefer to avoid all the complications of this complex twin-contract system.  But they will find it difficult to resist.  And if the image-rights contract works for Beckham, everyone will want one...

Do you have any examples ? Drop me a line   

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Mobile Markets Collapse

Investors are deeply disconcerted by the trading weaknesses of the mobile-phone companies.  As consumers, we are not flocking to buy the next generation of mobile-phones (3G), whose licences commanded such astronomical auction prices two years ago.  Not even the Japanese consumers, noted for their love of gadgetry, are buying the new products.  

What's the problem?  I think the difficulty lies with battery technology. I do not think that our love of communication  is weakening, rather the contrary.  But the systems themselves are technically fragile.    I get so exasperated, for example, with the various battery systems on offer, their short-life and their unreliability.  I would certainly not invest in any more sophisticated equipment, without battery improvement..  That is compounded by limited-network problems, with conversations disrupted by poor geographical coverage.  For example, my Orange phone will not work in my hill-top house in Swansea - unless I remember to take the phone up to the attic.  How can the market flourish when such fundamental technological constraints remain?

What do you think?   Drop me a line 
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No Go for Non-Execs

Lord Young of Graffham is no friend of mine.  But the former Thatcher Cabinet favourite is an experienced businessman and Director, with far more senior experience of life-at-the-corporate-top than I have.  He is also President of the Institute of Directors, and I am not.

By rubbishing non-executive Directors, therefore, he does us all a great service.  My own earlier scepticism will not have cut much ice with the City Establishment as they rushed to argue that the Enron collapse would have been stemmed by better non-Execs.

Lord Young condemned this approach as "naive".  And he was right.  He contended that Government attempts to regulate non-executive Directors were "dangerous nonsense".  And he was right.  Lord Graffham pulled no punches. 

  • "The idea has come about", he said "that in some manner non-executive Directors can second-guess the executives.  Of course, they cannot.  If management is not forthcoming, they non-execs can never even know - until it's far too late".

So much for the City's evasive strategy, and the policy of the IoD itself.  Lord Young was also right in asserting the indivisibility of the Director's role.  Every Director is in law equally responsible for the conduct of the company's business - there is no such animal, in law, as a "non-executive Director".  A Director is a Director is a Director.

If the DTI will not listen to me, I hope they will listen to Lord Young.  The only defence against mismanagement is greater publicity, greater Press access to company files, greater transparency all around [ read my  Taming the Corporations ]

As if to hammer the point home, Director's responsibilities were highlighted by the mammoth £3 billion damages-claim brought against fifteen former Directors of Equitable Life, for negligence in their conduct of the company's affairs.  Many people believe that Directors are protected from such actions.  But Directors are protected only from claims which should in law be directed towards "the company", as a separate legal person - that this is not the case here.  The fifteen Directors are sued for their personal negligence in their custodianship of the company's affairs.  That is a personal liability, not a corporate one.  Both Directors and managers are always open, in theory, to such legal action.

City dinosaurs are said to be keen to collect as many non-Executive appointments as they can, to while away a profitable retirement.  This week, they are markedly less enthusiastic - as they think of John Wakeham, notorious UK non-Exec of Enron.  I'm not surprised they're worried - are you? 

What do you think?   Drop me a line 
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Clickety Click!

Can you Adam-an'-Eve it?  The National Audit Office of Buckingham Palace Road has blown the whistle on the Government's guilty secret.  After all the preaching and the Internet promotion, do you know how many public bodies still lack any website of their own?

The shameful figure is sixty-six!  66!  And many others are not user-friendly, with poor search engines, and lacking any interactive facilities.  That is disgraceful.  But to be fair to Blair, one of the top publications is one you can access direct from here, namely >  No 10 Downing Street   It is an excellent gateway site for a wide range of public affairs purposes.


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