Right Wing Swing?
I say "No"
Trendy commentary has it
that
the Western world is swinging to the Right - Bush, Berlusconi, Chirac, the new
Danish Government. This view was put cogently by Andrew Rawnsley in last Sunday's
Observer.
The Left, they say, seemingly so dominant just three short
years
ago, is losing the plot.
That is a misreading of the
situation. True, there is mighty turmoil on both the Right and the
Left, as politicians grapple with the doctrinal vacuum that is gripping civic
society. The collapse of old socialism in the 1980s has been
followed by the progressive collapse of free market capitalism in the 1990s. Tony Blair put paid to socialist collectivism in the UK, but without having
anything to put in its place. The Thatcher legacy progressively unravelled
under John Major and William Hague, but without leaving Duncan Smith with anything
to put in its place.
The same doctrinal anomie
affects Continental Europe (particularly France, Germany, Italy and Spain)
and may even contribute to the lack of any sense of direction in American
politics. This is not a "swing to the Right". Rather, it
is a vacuum, lacking direction. It indicates
that all politicians are trying to come to terms with the awesome realisation
that the globe must now be treated as a finite and unitary system which must
be managed as an integrated whole. The question is: Who will
come up with the first coherent theory of global management?
This is, I contend, a new problem,
at least one of the last ten years. Earlier generations could take refuge
in images of something-ism in one country, the pursuit of narrow concepts
of national interest, of unilateral migration and citizenship controls,
national Police forces, balancing national Budgets, influencing national
environments. None of this now makes sense. For the Thirtysomethings
now moving into power, the question is how to govern a managed society, within an
international environment which also demands active management.
Last week, I sensed a book in prospect, exploring the
challenges of holistic global management.
Well - I am not good at writing long pieces, and my book may never
emerge. But I have got the title! If my book ever sees the
light of day it will be called The End of Infinity. It will
explore the perception that all global systems are now finite - migration,
pollution, public health, global warming, international crime, terrorism, war -
nowhere are there any loose ends, any convenient boltholes. Everything is
subject to management by someone, somewhere.
There are no wildernesses, there can be no exile. All leaders must
confront the need for international, or global, systems of management
that are considered legitimate at community, regional and national level.
And the biggest challenge of all is to the civil liberties lobby, which can no
longer rest merely on the concept of resistance to interference, and must
propound new formulae for the regulation of state management.
It is my contention that, in
coming to grips with this new and bewildering reality, the Left has a head
start, even though too little has yet been achieved. The Right is not
prepared, philosophically or psychologically, for these challenges. The Bush
retreat into one-country protectionism, his espousal of the Nuclear Defence Shield
and withdrawal from Kyoto, show just how barren the philosophical resources of
the Right are. Duncan Smith is caught blinking the headlights, floundering
pragmatically along. Chirac has no coherent world-view at all.
Berlusconi is a pantomime figure, a clown. And if Gerhard Schroder falls
in Germany in September, the blame will lie principally with the failure of the German Left
to reform the German labour market and to address the manifest rigidities of the
German retail sector.
A paradigm shift, that's what
it is. A paradigm is a "basic theory, a conceptual framework
within which scientific theories are constructed", my Chambers Dictionary
tells me. And what is needed is precisely a paradigm shift. The
outgoing paradigm is of Government as a dominant influence within
society, characterised by varying degrees of competence and potential, according to ones
political theory. The emerging paradigm is of each society as a unitary
managed system, operating within a system of emerging global management.
Future political theories, to be worth their salt, must propound answers to the
these challenges of overall management.
All Western politicians are in
the same boat, both on the Right and the Left. It is no longer
convincing to propound single-state policies. In every direction, global
management initiatives are required, of a kind which were not in the script when
the present team signed up for their political careers. Faced with massive
new personal and doctrinal challenges, the politicians are circling on the spot,
like a huge flock of birds waiting for a clear indication where to fly.
That lead is more likely to come
from the Left than from the Right. On the Right, the only show in town is
US global hegemony - warlike, pragmatic, narrow, and suborned by business.
It is for the UK Left to go further than Tony Blair - he's too timid for me -
give the lead, and to head off in a socialist direction.
Your thoughts?