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411  28 August 2002   

Police: New Structures needed

"The Police" are always in the news.  No other public service has the same exposure, or carries the same range of public expectations.  Recent months have been marred by clashes between the Police and Home Secretary David Blunkett: they disturb me, because I am someone who sides naturally, with the Police.  Local communities castigate the lack of "Bobbies on the beat".  Whenever major national investigations arise, the localised nature of the Police comes under attack.

Radical Police reorganisation is certainly needed, and both politicians and citizens should be paying more attention to the issue.  But the problem runs very deep indeed, and reflects a wider failure of constitutional structure.  Traditionally, police organisation has mirrored governmental units, and that makes good sense, as a democratic principle. And if the overall legitimacy and efficacy of the Police are to be maintained, those democratic links should be strengthened. But the linkage is, in practice, growing weaker and weaker.


We should abandon the old 19th-century image of a unitary police force.  It is true that UK policing started as a feature of local government alone (except in London).  But today's situation is fundamentally different: modern forms of social and political organisation are genuinely more complex, and call for new forms of policing. 

We need, in my view, three different types of police force, and they do not require to be organised as part of single service.  At each level, our Police forces must be more closely related elected Councillors and other political representatives. It will take courage and political creativity to abandon the tradition of a unitary force, but is what is needed.

  • Community Police  The visibility and accessibility of local neighbourhood policing is important, and the present system clearly fails most local communities - community constables should be employed locally (even by Parish and community councils where appropriate) and should focus on very local law-and-order issues, excluding any major crime investigation;
  • Regional Police  This is broadly what we have at present, with Police Authorities ordinarily larger than the units of local government to which they relate, and operating as self-sufficient units for the investigation of all regional crime, and the maintenance of regional law-and-order, crowd control, civil emergency, regional traffic.  The political problem lies in precisely the political discontinuity, as between the requirements of Police organisation and the democratic structures of our Constitution.  In Wales, for example, there should clearly be three major regional Police Forces - SE Wales, SW Wales and Mid/North Wales - but these regions have no separate democratic existence, and could not take effective responsibility for oversight of the Police function.
  • National Police  There is a self-evident need for a national police force, answerable to the UK Government, to investigate terrorist networks and major criminal activities, to operate consistent migration and smuggling control systems, and to participate in international policing operations.  Yet reforms are consistently resisted by the present regional police forces, and their "trade union" the Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO).

Police reform should be on the political agenda, along with provincial and regional devolution.  My analysis of the requirements of the Welsh government system applies more widely, to Scotland and England, and would be well-suited to this policing model - check out May/02 address to Cardiff Fabians.

Do you share my concerns with Police organisation?

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412   28 August 2002   

For OAP, read UPP

State Pension reform, as readers will know, is a hobby-horse of mine.  My views are a matter of record: see most recently 
26 June and 29 June, and many earlier tirades.  I am prepared to accept a higher retirement age, in return for a much higher, and state-guaranteed, weekly income, without marriage-abatement.

Now the influential Pensions Reform Group has come up with plans for a Universal Protected Pension, partly funded on the present pay-as-we-go principle, out of current taxation, and partly by savings: check out the Guardian report.  NI contributions would have to rise significantly, but I accept that too.  Pensions would be payable at 30% of average wage, which I also accept.

But the formula suffers two defects, for the elimination of which I shall be contending.  For it is not sufficiently redistributive, not sufficiently socialist. 

  • First  It seems that the additional "compulsory savings" may be proposed at a flat-rate, rather than (as with National Insurance) proportional to actual income.  If so, that would be unacceptable: the burden of pensions provision would be far greater for the poor than for the rich.  I accept that an element of compulsory savings may be necessary, but each should contribute an appropriate proportion of income, in return for a standard, universal benefit: that is the right, redistributive, socialist, solution.
  • Second  These supplementary savings are to be invested in the City, as with private savings.  If so, the State must guarantee a minimum cumulative return.  That principle is already established in National Savings, with the pensioners Bonds (Granny Bonds): the higher-rate interest is payable for a pre-determined period, whatever happens to interest-rates, so that the savings are effectively ring-fenced against the market.  The same must be true of these supplementary pension-savings: it would be unconscionable for the State to use coercion to secure the "investment" of such contributions, and then leave the hapless investor exposed to the vagaries of the market.  Again, socialist reasoning requires, as a matter of elementary redistributive equity, that a minimum rate-of-return should be guaranteed. 

I do not exclude the possibility that the rate-of-return might from time-to-time be changed by Parliament, with a very long notice period (say three years, to allow savers to adjust), but the return-on-investment should in principle be State-guaranteed.

With these qualifications, it sounds as if the Universal Protected Pension is moving along on the right lines.  Last June, the principle of bringing back a decent universal State pension was backed even by the Financial Times.

Can the Government now be far behind?

Are you prepared to back the UPP?

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413   28 August 2002   

Too much Monbiot...

It is clear that many of you also read George Monbiot.  And you think I am being too negative about his position.  He writes again this week, perceptively and fluently, in The Guardian.

Let me defend myself, by explaining what I think our political strategy should be.

First, we should re-define - and limit - the problem.  I am wholly convinced that humankind faces a real global crisis, in terms of environmental degradation and resource depletion.  I do not buy the arguments of the all-is-hunky-dory school.  And as politicians, we must find ways of addressing those grave threats, on behalf of our societies - and of life as a whole, human and otherwise.  But I do not think that these issues should be lumped together with all the other problems of the world - international poverty, inequity in the distribution of resources, trade protectionism, Third World debt, plagues and destructive diseases.  While all these problems, I recognise, are interconnected in some way, their political solution is not furthered by lumping them all together and holding "World Summits" to discuss them.

  • NB  I favour a new, more narrowly-focused, round of treaty negotiations, adopting a different rolling treaty technique, led by the UK, and focusing on physical environmental and depletion.  That is what I mean by sustainable development, nothing more.  I will not repeat the arguments here.

Second  We should recognise that the "Western" engine of consumption cannot be restrained by coercing individual consumers.  Preaching against excessive consumption (and George does a lot of that) is no good.   Direct government intervention at the point of consumption is bound to be ineffective, and in any event fatal for any initiating Government.  Even conventional public health interventions can become oppressive, and counter-productive.

Three strategies are available, I reckon, to Government:

  • Increase the scale of direct public investment in SD, gradually shifting the overall balance in favour of public, as compared with domestic, consumption.  Great skill will be needed to direct that public investment to projects which are perceived as worthwhile, by a selfish electorate.  But I am sure it can be done.
  • Use legislation, including the tax system, to influence non-consumer behaviour by coercion, again by choosing techniques which command widespread public support.  The EU recycling measures (fridges, old cars) are good examples of such measures, and there are many more ideas where they came from.  California's new clean-car laws, tough as they are, are moving in the right direction.
  • Develop new inducements to citizens to modify their personal behaviour.  The Government's wheeze to charge for refuse collection, while ridiculed, came from the right stable of ideas - and we must keep thinking.  I favour the use of tax credit vouchers, capable of being used by way of part-payment of direct taxes such as income tax, National Insurance and Council Tax.

We must devise realistic political means of achieving these critical goals, within the UK, and work within a new international treaty framework.

Do you share my exasperation with the Soft Green Lobby?

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414   28 August 2002   

Europe in Writing

I have always been apprehensive about the process of drafting a formal written Constitution for the European Union.  This is a sector in which I have, arguably, as much expertise as anyone else in this country. 

Surprised?  Exaggerating? Big-headed?  Well, perhaps a bit.  But not much.  I practised in the field of public administrative law, at the Bar in my twenties and early-thirties.  I studied French and German public law, in their original respective countries and languages in 1963 and 1964, as part of the UK's preparations for Common market entry.  On my return, I lectured on comparisons between the three public-law systems.  I remain fluent in French and German and, given 24 hours' revision and technical briefing, I could still plead a public law case, in public, in either language, in either country.  So my claim has substance to it.

And I am apprehensiveIt is not that I fear the process, intellectually or professionally - indeed, I would give my eye-teeth to be still involved.  It is that the process will be a fraught one, a new source of tension and conflict.   The UK had no option, in practice, but to pick up the Giscard D'Estaing gauntlet.  But we should take along, with us, some very long spoons indeed.

For the drafting process will expose a million ambiguities which the EU is not yet able to resolve: it would be far better to leave them in the realm of ambiguity, while the Big Issues (enlargement, Common Agricultural Policy, foreign policy, military integration) are played out.  Ambiguity is integral to the process of political persuasion - yet lawyers and translaters hate ambiguities.  

Those conflicts will be all the more intense because each language-group will seek to retain their own types of ambiguity: every language is distinguished by its types of ambiguity, and national loyalty will sadly be strongly engaged in these negotiations.  There are very few linguistic geniuses with a real command of these different ambiguities, in several languages.

Nor will the process deliver the certainty which the British seek.  The British, who do not have a written constitution. believe that such Constitutions are about precision.  That is a misconception.  Written Constitutions can be just as vague as unwritten ones, posing great conflicts of principle for decision by the Courts. 

Finally, few UK lawyers (apart from academics) have any  experience of drafting constitutions.  We will be hard-pressed to assemble a negotiating team of the necessary calibre.  There is a danger that the French and German lawyers will have us for breakfast.

I accept that Jack Straw and the UK Government had no alternative but to cooperate with this process.  To have stood aside would have been to destroy UK credibility entirely.  But the are real dangers ahead...

This is, I accept, a pretty narrow and specialist matter, without the capacity to excite the masses.  Is this an issue which concerns you?

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415   28 August 2002   

Religion & Politics

Politicians yearn for the ability to press religious buttons.  They realise the limitations of conventional "political" methods, of subsidy, statutory intervention and law enforcement.  And they suspect that these methods do not engage the real levers of change.  They suspect that real change in the hearts and minds of people lies beyond the scope of "politics" and moves into the territory of "religion", or at least that diffuse humanist moral philosophy which now satisfies the silent majority.  Tony Blair clearly feels that, as did Margaret Thatcher, perhaps even certain American Presidents.

And in this respect, Chief Rabbi Jonathan Sacks, is a politician - albeit one with a difference.  In a new book, he has addressed the specific reconciliation of Islamic, Jewish and Christian teachings, demonstrating that religious diversity is to be valued, in all three faiths.  His aim is to defuse exclusivity and fundamentalism, wherever they raise their ugly heads. The book is explicitly called The Dignity of Difference. The arguments are pretty convincing (at least if you are someone, like me, who desperately wants to be convinced).

And as a frustrated politician myself, I share the politicians' envy of religious leaders, who seemingly access parts of the human spirit which political theories cannot reach.  But I fear that Sacks arguments, while targeted at his fellow priests in the two other religions, will not cut much ice with the general public.  To judge from the book reviews (which I confess I do, all the time), few rank-and-file believers will be able to access the Chief Rabbi's professional arguments.

That is partly because of the erosion of religious faith as a whole.  But it is also because the need is for a universal doctrine of individual equality and dignity - one which disregards religious differences as it disregards all other differences, of gender, language, age and ethnicity.  Rather than confirm the Rabbi's view that "differences are desirable", the key concept ought to be that differences are politically irrelevant - and that message is subtly different.  Such theories do of course have some element of religious underpinning, even where ostensibly humanist in character.  Its simplest religious expression is George Fox's perception of "that of God in every man" (familiar to  me, because of my Quaker schooling).  That is the philosophy which underpins the Human Rights movement, and with which I personally identify. 

  • But Sacks is great - independent of mind, courageous, direct. All power to his elbow.

Does your political thinking retain any religious component?

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416   1 September 2002   

"GM" Pros v Cons 

The debate over “genetic modification” has become tragically distorted.  It cannot possibly be a debate about the process of modifying genes, in the course of the reproductive process, whether for plants, animals or humans.  Given the huge potential benefits of GM techniques, I find it quite impossible to imagine any principled objection to this form of scientific investigation. That puts me firmly in the Tony Blair camp, on this issue, and more than a little impatient with the sheer obscurantism of the debate – I think Friends of the Earth have got this one wrong.  They have sided with the dogmatism of the American religious Right, mouthing mindless slogans. 

But the GM “movement” nevertheless does for me raise two very serious concerns, both relating to the abuse of power

  • First  The search for patentable inventions: GM momentum is coming from major commercial corporations, who are seeking (by genetic engineering) to devise new plant/life species strains which have been “invented”, and which are therefore capable of private-right patenting.  Modified strains can be owned, whereas natural strains cannot.  Gratuitous modification is worthwhile in profit terms, even if no substantive functional advance is achieved. 

  • Second   Those private rights quickly become vested, not in a boffin inventor or some kindly retired Professor, but in major international corporations which are capable for the most ruthless and amoral exploitation of the world’s population, aided and abetted by prevailing legal systems. 

The solution is not to prevent this research, but to manage the process more effectively.  The long-term solution is to tackle the underlying issue of corporate sector reform.  I am becoming more and more focused on (some would say obsessed with, but let that pass) the need to Tame the Corporations.  People are fearful of GM processes because they do not trust the corporations.   

It is no good lecturing the corporations and their management, nor yet expecting too much of them.  They are what they are, what we have permitted them to be.  We must get inside the legal machine, and change the legal rules which govern their very existence and operation, under company law.  That is what my object is, in promoting internationally the Newport Manifesto. 

Will you join me? 

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417   1 September 2002   

Canals cry for help

I spent two days this week talking green transport.  By that, I mean the transfer of freight from the roads to the canals.  One of my personal interests lies in the reinvigoration of barge transport, and the use of our marvellous canal system for commercial freight.  I am Chairman of two East London companies working in this field, Waterflow Transport Limited and Pondskater Limited. 

Barge operators from all over the UK attended, invited by the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.  It was a great pleasure to meet the Northern barge operators, so often the third and fourth generation of old bargemaster families.  Ostensibly, the subject was the adaptation of the European Inland Waterways Directive 1996 to UK circumstances.  But the real theme was different.  What emerged was a desperate cry-for-help from the handful of commercial firms still in operation. 

Barge transport is near terminal collapse, in its hopeless competition with cheap road transport.  And the British Waterways Board, who should be promoting green freight positively, has lost all interest in commercial freight.  Life is quieter and simpler selling fishing licences, pleasure moorings, and wharfside land - for property development. 

I can vouch, from my own experience, for the seriousness of the crisis.  My own company can rarely afford to deliver its hazardous waste cargo (car batteries, for re-cycling) by barge, even though we have the equipment (tug and barges) to do so, and even though the Lee Navigation waterway is in good condition and entirely workable.  It is simply  cheaper, even in the hurly burly of the London traffic, to deliver by road than by barge.  Yet the environmental advantages of retaining the option of barge movement must be unarguable. 

I do not believe that Government has the faintest idea how serious the situation is.  If the Government is serious about green transport, some form of subsidy must be paid, to redress the reverse profit gap with highway freight. Opinions clearly differ as to the size of that gap, but it should be measured in terms of kilometre-tons, for every ton carried by water over the distance of the trip.  The barge operator should be able to rely upon the payment, for every ton actually carried, of a distance supplement relating to the length of the journey-by-water.  Such payment should be payable simply for the advantage of movement-by-water, in systemic and environmental terms.   

This Green Barge Supplement would have to be committed for a fixed period ahead, probably five years. After three years, a Government decision could be taken whether or not to extend it, introducing a rolling three-year commitment, so that it could not be terminated without three-years’ notice.  Without a reliable forward commitment, the barge-operator could not sensibly take the Supplement into account when tendering for competitive freight contracts.  And if that happened, the system would fail. 

This would not be discriminatory in EU terms.  It would be payable to Dutch or German operators who decided to ply for trade in UK inland waters.  True, it would subsidise water transport for environmental reasons, and that is itself a desirable EU objective.

Is anyone listening, in Government?  Or do they want to stick to the imposition of further Regulations upon the trade?  One thiing is quite clear.  Unless Government does listen, and act quickly, there will be no industry left to regulate.

If you share any of these obsessions, it would be
good to hear from you... 

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418  1 September 2002   

Read Rucksack Theory

Not everything is silly, in the Summer Silly Season.  Serious attempts have been made during August to address the phenomenon of growing public discontent, even in the face of rising material prosperity.  Polly Toynbee has tackled the Young Meldrews, always on the whinge.  The New Statesman reviewed the work of Professor Andrew Oswald of Warwick University, an economist who claims to be able to measure the monetary-equivalents of happiness.  A happy marriage?  £70,000Finding a new job, after unemployment? £100,000.  And Downing Street, ever eager to understand voter-behaviour, is reported to be researching the issue as well. 

The issue is a deadly serious one, with direct political consequences.  Each of our societies is essentially a psycho-system, a tangled network of subjective perceptions, in which fact, rumour, fears, aspirations and ideologies all mix, to generate observable collective patterns of behaviour.  Businessmen, politicians and economists all need to track the feel-good factor.  Downing Street is right to research it, for it holds the clue to the future, including the outcome of the next General Election.

But “happiness” itself is an unhelpful term, as is “feel-good factor”.  True, they describe a positive state of mind, but that is all.  If we are to understand what is happening beneath the surface, the analysis must go further.  My own observation that each of us carries with us a personal bundle of uncertainties, anxieties and fears, as in a personal rucksack, wherever we go.

That rucksack, which is always with us, contains all the factors affecting our prevailing individual state of mind, whether positive and negative.  Some factors are entirely individual (e.g. falling in and out of love, marking the birth or death of a child, passing an exam) others are collective (e.g. TV reports of a Jerusalem suicide-bomb attack, sight of climatic catastrophes, the World Trade Centre collapse, evidence of global warming).  Every day, new experiences crowd upon us, demanding explanation.  And if we cannot make sense of it all, the uncertainties harden into anxieties, ultimately fears. And fears have the potential to cripple any individual, through depression or other anxiety states. That is the thesis of my 1992 essay, rather pompously entitled Multiple Differential Uncertainty.  For today, I am re-naming that Rucksack Theory.

  Politics, I say, is about helping people to overcome their fears and to live a full life – fears of poverty, starvation, old age.  I stand with Aneurin Bevan and the brilliant title of his autobiography, In Place of Fear.  My analysis suggests that Labour should now, in 2002, address these fears, in this order –

d   Fear of disorder  This is more than the conventional “crime and disorder” agenda, of muggings, burglaries and public rowdyism.  The fear of war, induced by George Dubya, and UK failure to counter his influence, contributes to the fear of disorder.  The continuing failure of Government “drugs policy” contributes as well.  Immigration policy, reports of asylum-proceedings, all fuel disorder anxieties.  All major public service malfunctions contribute to an uneasy feeling that "They" are incompetent, and that is corrosive. Media coverage of crime, including the BBC, contributes to growing fear of crime throughout society, quite out of proportion to its actual incidence.  Labour fought the June 2002 Council Elections principally on law-and-order issues, and the Party was right to do so.  But far more sophisticated political strategies are needed, to address the rising tide of personal anxiety on this score..

d   Fear of unemployment, poverty  The 30/40-Somethings, who remain the powerhouse of the modern economy, are apprehensive about continuity of their employment.  Worse, is the totally inadequate benefit payable upon job-loss.  That is what fuels the astronomical rise in Industrial Tribunal claims: frequently, the object of such proceedings is merely to secure a reasonable severance settlement.   And these fears subsist, even though the economy is buoyant, because of the unpredictability and abruptness of change.  Faced with job-loss, every individual needs time to adjust, and should be given that time.  A dramatic change of approach is needed, to helping each individual manage job-transition.  My own proposals for a new kind of Adjustment Pay, replacing the Redundancy Benefit system, are on the record.

d   Fear of old age  The 30/40-Somethings are now increasingly worried about their old age.  Labour has conspired with the Tories to eliminate the State Old Age Pension from their expectations, herding them into the City, just at  a time when employers are withdrawing from their earlier pension-providing role, and when City investment performance is woefully weak.  The Young Meldrews are feeling abandoned, lost, angry – and they are afraid.  Private investment is clearly not going to provide for their old age, and the State has abandoned them.  Labour must pick up the cudgels again, ditch the Party’s Tory policies, and come to their aid.

d   Fears of ill-health   These, I believe, are much lower down the Anxiety Agenda than is conventionally thought.  Opinion surveys consistently show that individuals’ personal experience of the NHS demonstrates high levels of satisfaction, exceeding 80%, in spite of well-reported cases of NHS failure.  While I applaud the scale of the Government’s additional NHS investment, the primary issue is not one of resources by of a change of therapeutic style, which is not yet being addressed.

What about education?  I do not think it appears on the anxiety radar.   The cost-to-parents of post-16 education is a real issue, but that is the only point (in my view) where Education currently enters Rucksack Theory. 

What else is on the Rucksack Agenda?  Environmental pollution is rising rapidly up the Agenda, as are consequential concerns with its cost implications. The rising tide of insurance premiums is triggering widespread anxiety, as projects fail to secure insurance cover.  The evident chaos of UK transportation is profoundly unsettling.  For a well-informed and educated electorate, new reasons for anxiety arise daily.  That is the kernel of my theory at Multiple Differential Uncertainty.  Each of us carries those anxieties around until we have found a way of living with them - we resolve them, or forget them, or suppress them, or bypass them - or just get drunk or stoned. That's what I mean by Rucksack Theory.

Let me know what you think

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